This morning at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Jerome Powell’s update on mortgage rates gave markets the signal they were waiting for: the Fed may be ready to cut rates at their September 17th meeting.
Key Takeaways from Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech
- Labor market is weakening. Powell said job growth is slowing more than expected, with revisions showing softer employment data. If that continues, layoffs and a higher unemployment rate could follow.
- Inflation pressures remain, but may be temporary. Tariffs are showing up in higher prices, but Powell expects this to be a one-time bump rather than sustained inflation.
- Economic growth is cooling. U.S. growth has averaged just 1.2% in the first half of 2025 — a noticeable slowdown.
Market Reaction: Mortgage Rates Move Lower
- Mortgage bonds rallied immediately after Powell’s comments.
- The 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4.3%.
- Odds of a September rate cut are now close to 90%.
This is good news for mortgage rates. Even before the Fed makes an official move, markets tend to react to forward guidance, which can create opportunities for homebuyers and homeowners looking to refinance.
The Next Big Dates to Watch
- September 5th: The August Jobs Report. If it’s weak again, it could lock in the September cut. If it’s strong, it could shift expectations.
- September 9th: Benchmark job revisions for late 2024. These could reveal hidden weakness in last year’s labor market data.
What This Means for Mortgage Rates
If you’re thinking about buying a home, refinancing, or simply evaluating your options, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is an important signal. Rate relief could be coming soon — and markets are already moving ahead of the Fed’s decision.
Want to know what this means for your numbers? Let’s connect and review your options today.